Ultra Petroleum Corporation has filed for Chapter 11 protection for the second time in four years, torpedoed in large part by persistently weak natural gas prices.
Back in 2016, the company filed for bankruptcy for the purposes of debt elimination. Ultra Petroleum raised nearly $3 billion USD in exit financing by early 2017 to satisfy creditors in full all while preserving factional value for shareholders.
A look at the company's FRISK® score dating back more than a year shows an organization consistently in bankruptcy peril:
The 96%-accurate FRISK® score blends stock market volatility data, financial ratios like the Altman Z"-Score, bond agency ratings from Moody's, Fitch and DBRS Morningstar and, finally, subscriber crowdsourcing to create a metric that's elite in predicting public company bankruptcies like Ultra Petroleum.
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Our FRISK® score model incorporates four powerful risk inputs:
- “Merton”-type model of stock market capitalization and volatility
- Financial ratios, including those used in the Altman Z”-Score Model
- Agency ratings
- Website click pattern data from CreditRiskMonitor® subscribers, representing key credit decision-makers at nearly 40% of current Fortune 1000 companies plus thousands of other large companies worldwide
Since the start of 2017, the FRISK® score’s rate of success in capturing public company bankruptcy is 96%. In any given year, you can count on one hand the times we miss – and in those outlier cases, the circumstances deal with unusual, unforeseen events such as natural disasters and CEO fraud.
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About Bankruptcy Case Studies
CreditRiskMonitor® Bankruptcy Case Studies provide post-filing analyses of public company bankruptcies. Our case studies educate subscribers about methods they can apply to assess bankruptcy risk using our proprietary FRISK® score, robust financial database, and timely news alerts.
In nearly every case, a low FRISK® score gave our subscribers early warning of financial distress within a one-year time horizon. Our proprietary FRISK® score predicts bankruptcy risk at public companies with 96% accuracy. The score is formulated by a number of indicators including stock market capitalization and volatility, financial ratios, agency ratings, and crowdsourced behavioral data from a subscriber group that includes nearly 40% of the Fortune 1000 and thousands more worldwide.
Whether you are new to credit analysis or have decades of experience under your belt, CreditRiskMonitor® Bankruptcy Case Studies offer unique insights into the business and financial decline that precedes bankruptcy.